Its been a week since the final of ICC Cricket World Cup 2015. Australia demonstrated their cricketing domination in big events - yet again. While most of Indian cricket fans brushed aside the team's surrender to Australia in semis, others found comfort in a tepid final where New Zealand succumbed to Australia, just like India did. Thus stamping their belief that Australia was invincible playing in their home conditions. Many would laugh at comparing the champion Australia side with any other side that played in the World Cup. When victorious, others look small. But there is more strategy to Australian campaign than the players in this World Cup.
Australia had a good batting side and brilliant fielders - so did India, South Africa and Sri Lanka. But what it had more were the left arm seamers. Johnson, Starc and Faulkner. It has to be mentioned that most of the world's frontline batsmen are right handers and they are more comfortable playing right arm seamers. Moreso in case of India, where batsmen are good around their legs and susceptible to the leaving ball. Left arm seamers bowl at an angle which takes the ball away from the body.
Lets talk about the performance of left arm seamers in this world cup.
Mitchell Starc was astoundingly accurate if one talks about delivering the toe crushers and rattling the stumps. Trent Boult was equally impressive - had Australians at sea during the league encounter in New Zealand. Wahab Riaz too disturbed the Aussies in their chase of 213 laboured by Pakistan. So much was the threat posted by Riaz that Watson had to acknowledge it was his most important innings in one dayers - he was so lucky not to get out. While these were the bowlers who made their presence felt first up; Mitchell Johnson saved it for the clash against India. He stole the match from India - both in terms of batting and bowling. His scalp of Kohli and Rohit - deflated Indian confidence to chase the 300+ total. More so because the batsmen were found wanting on both occasions.
Watching Shikhar Dhawan's batting in semi finals, I believe India could have done it if he was there till the end. Only he looked to counterattack Aussie left arm seamers. While there was lack of aggression in other Indian batsmen, it can be assumed that the confidence and technique to face left arm seamers was missing. Almost all Indian right handed batsmen - Rohit, Kohli, Dhoni have issue with the leaving ball.
India lost the control when Shikhar Dhawan got out in 13th over. But a better chance was thrown away by Pakistan - that dolly 'dropped' catch of Shane Watson just handed over the trophy to Australia. Australian scoreboard would have read 83/4 had Watson been taken, but that simple miss frustrated Pakistan and Aussies won by 6 wickets. Given what Wahab and Boult did to Australia, one may not be surprised if India come up with a new left arm seamer to tackle Australian batsmen - on foreign pitches that assist pace bowling. While this idea must be played with, one may be reminded what happen to India when it had two left arm seamers and one Javagal Srinath. Cricket World Cup 2003 final - Where Zaheer and Srinath were tonked by Ponting and company. Remember there were two left handed batsmen - Gilchrist and Hayden who had dented Zaheer Khan's rhythm. Nehra was ok in his spell while Srinath leaked many runs.
Sunday, April 5, 2015
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
DON 2 : First Look, first feel
I watch few movies at theatre. Don 2 was always on the list. Who would skip the escapades of Don as “Don ko pakadna mushkil hi nahi…NAMUMKIN HAI…he he he he” ? It began with an expected scene..lots of big goons planning some mischief…here the mission was to kill DON.
I don’t know if its a major disparity in the Amitabh flick and Shahrukh’s versions are that new DON is always on the hit list of criminals, rather than insipid POLICE. The ploy of DON to reach the weaknesses of his enemy is beautifully unfolded. Too many exotic locations give it a feel of BOND movie, only certain shocking elements like a plastic item number by Ayesha, legal actions defying logic, an unnecessary skin show by Roma (Interpol) and an unreasonable love chemistry between the ‘Dog’ and his ‘wild cat’ author fails to understand.
It is certain that the brand DON is here to stay…to be seen is if Farhan gives next movie the name of DON 3 or doesn’t include DON in it. Shahrukh has exceeded limits in acting prowess, fight sequences and justified his not so muscular physique by getting beaten up by Vardhan and more particularly, Jabbar. DON feels more like a Chacha Chowdhury who has the power to pre-empt next multiple moves of his enemies.
Coming to the escapades, all were detailed and kept us glued to the screen. Author missed the connecting points of first one to an extent as 2-3 worried people were arguing nearby to get their seats sorted out. It was a jail break scene where DON and Vardhan flee on a medical van. It was a quick execution, but believable as all tactics were aptly displayed.
Determined to tackle the topmost authority gunning for his head, DON joined hands with Vardhan to reveal proof of a criminal conspiracy by a top bank (read Europe Central Bank) executive. Now this proof had the powers to bargain for blueprint of the Central Bank where Euro plates were kept in a ‘Only RAJNI can break it’ vault under extremely tight security. EURO plates are the impression of currency EURO which is on the verge of extinction these days. DON thought that he will mint billions of EUROs for himself using those plates.
As an initial threat of spoiling the party, Ayesha and Hrithik Roshan went to a charity raiser. Mr. Diwan (VP of that Bank) was the guest of honour. A salsa was on, where backless Ayesha offered to dance with Diwan. Predict wat next – Ya the Agneepath pair completed a beautiful SALSA. Roma felt like she knew him and went searching frenetically. Her objective of life has always been to catch DON..isn’t it. HR was actually DON in a mask. He he.
Stunned by the video clip from a cellphone skillfully kept in his pocket by Ayesha, Mr. Banker talks to his boss and contracts Jabbar to kill DON. How foolish na ? What followed was a hilarious sequence where DON just treated Jabbar like a ‘machchar’ and double contracted to work for his team. Jabbar had taken 2.5 million euros as advance from the Banker. Don offered him 15 million EUROs.
All the plans laid out, entered Sameer (Mr. Kunal Kapoor of RDB fame). Ofcourse he seemed a hacker from outset. It was strange to see the respect he offered DON, calling him sir a number of times. DON asked him to mastermind the security breach and controlling of automated equipments inside the bank. All was set for the loot.
Again, the plan seemed very thoughtful. All activities which seemed spontaneous, were actually planned out by DON and Sameer. This computer guy na, I tell you – he impressed DON with his hacking skills. Any Tom Dick or Harry could predict that Vardhan will act smart later. He did. But God aka Sameer had all the controls with him. He switched off the electricity using his computer and DON was swooooooooosh. Then to our surprise Roma and the police is waiting for DON at the exit route. Sameer had betrayed(not really).
Vardhan and Jabbar are inside the bank and they don’t have the exit route (It was not shared to them ..he he). So they threaten to kill hostages (some 20-25 videshis) one by one. Only DON can get to them as he knows the exit route (how silly ?). You know what he demands from police for this philanthropic work ? An immunity from all criminal cases against himJ. Diwan talks to him and signs the deal. (How could he ? He is just a banker). Roma decides to go with DON and have some romantic moments. Her boyfriend (new actor) makes a mockery of himself by threatening DON. Wearing bulletproof jackets; all head for this precious bank. DON shows his concern for Roma by saving her time and again. Once bomb diffusion expert is dead, he himself diffuses a bomb in time (so talented)J.
Meanwhile Vardhan hears an explosion in the security room and is wearied of DON’s presence. He threatens to kill hostages if DON does not show up. Wat now ? Ya, DON comes and with him, Roma. Oh! those last moments with him.
A little bit drama, but yes – as per script – Roma is injured, DON survives, Vardhan goes back to jail, Jabbar is killed by DON. Bank manager dies when a bomb explodes in his car. The plates …well they have to be with DON ….and his two young partners…Sameer and Ayesha.
Shahrukh has carried the role with conviction and covered the shortcomings with his fantastic presence. DON has always been smarter than the rest, be it Amitabh or him. Role of Vardhan is once again to share the screenspace with DON, as the character of Boman has to be sufficiently utilized. Priyanka has some fighting sequence to impress viewers. She was not required to do any item number as it eroded her character in mindspace. Lara as Ayesha could have been replaced by any young female actor. Kunal looked like he was short of offers and took DON to register in our memories. And yes, as Shahrukh gets older..Hrithik looks fitting into DON’s shoes.
I don’t know if its a major disparity in the Amitabh flick and Shahrukh’s versions are that new DON is always on the hit list of criminals, rather than insipid POLICE. The ploy of DON to reach the weaknesses of his enemy is beautifully unfolded. Too many exotic locations give it a feel of BOND movie, only certain shocking elements like a plastic item number by Ayesha, legal actions defying logic, an unnecessary skin show by Roma (Interpol) and an unreasonable love chemistry between the ‘Dog’ and his ‘wild cat’ author fails to understand.
It is certain that the brand DON is here to stay…to be seen is if Farhan gives next movie the name of DON 3 or doesn’t include DON in it. Shahrukh has exceeded limits in acting prowess, fight sequences and justified his not so muscular physique by getting beaten up by Vardhan and more particularly, Jabbar. DON feels more like a Chacha Chowdhury who has the power to pre-empt next multiple moves of his enemies.
Coming to the escapades, all were detailed and kept us glued to the screen. Author missed the connecting points of first one to an extent as 2-3 worried people were arguing nearby to get their seats sorted out. It was a jail break scene where DON and Vardhan flee on a medical van. It was a quick execution, but believable as all tactics were aptly displayed.
Determined to tackle the topmost authority gunning for his head, DON joined hands with Vardhan to reveal proof of a criminal conspiracy by a top bank (read Europe Central Bank) executive. Now this proof had the powers to bargain for blueprint of the Central Bank where Euro plates were kept in a ‘Only RAJNI can break it’ vault under extremely tight security. EURO plates are the impression of currency EURO which is on the verge of extinction these days. DON thought that he will mint billions of EUROs for himself using those plates.
As an initial threat of spoiling the party, Ayesha and Hrithik Roshan went to a charity raiser. Mr. Diwan (VP of that Bank) was the guest of honour. A salsa was on, where backless Ayesha offered to dance with Diwan. Predict wat next – Ya the Agneepath pair completed a beautiful SALSA. Roma felt like she knew him and went searching frenetically. Her objective of life has always been to catch DON..isn’t it. HR was actually DON in a mask. He he.
Stunned by the video clip from a cellphone skillfully kept in his pocket by Ayesha, Mr. Banker talks to his boss and contracts Jabbar to kill DON. How foolish na ? What followed was a hilarious sequence where DON just treated Jabbar like a ‘machchar’ and double contracted to work for his team. Jabbar had taken 2.5 million euros as advance from the Banker. Don offered him 15 million EUROs.
All the plans laid out, entered Sameer (Mr. Kunal Kapoor of RDB fame). Ofcourse he seemed a hacker from outset. It was strange to see the respect he offered DON, calling him sir a number of times. DON asked him to mastermind the security breach and controlling of automated equipments inside the bank. All was set for the loot.
Again, the plan seemed very thoughtful. All activities which seemed spontaneous, were actually planned out by DON and Sameer. This computer guy na, I tell you – he impressed DON with his hacking skills. Any Tom Dick or Harry could predict that Vardhan will act smart later. He did. But God aka Sameer had all the controls with him. He switched off the electricity using his computer and DON was swooooooooosh. Then to our surprise Roma and the police is waiting for DON at the exit route. Sameer had betrayed(not really).
Vardhan and Jabbar are inside the bank and they don’t have the exit route (It was not shared to them ..he he). So they threaten to kill hostages (some 20-25 videshis) one by one. Only DON can get to them as he knows the exit route (how silly ?). You know what he demands from police for this philanthropic work ? An immunity from all criminal cases against himJ. Diwan talks to him and signs the deal. (How could he ? He is just a banker). Roma decides to go with DON and have some romantic moments. Her boyfriend (new actor) makes a mockery of himself by threatening DON. Wearing bulletproof jackets; all head for this precious bank. DON shows his concern for Roma by saving her time and again. Once bomb diffusion expert is dead, he himself diffuses a bomb in time (so talented)J.
Meanwhile Vardhan hears an explosion in the security room and is wearied of DON’s presence. He threatens to kill hostages if DON does not show up. Wat now ? Ya, DON comes and with him, Roma. Oh! those last moments with him.
A little bit drama, but yes – as per script – Roma is injured, DON survives, Vardhan goes back to jail, Jabbar is killed by DON. Bank manager dies when a bomb explodes in his car. The plates …well they have to be with DON ….and his two young partners…Sameer and Ayesha.
Shahrukh has carried the role with conviction and covered the shortcomings with his fantastic presence. DON has always been smarter than the rest, be it Amitabh or him. Role of Vardhan is once again to share the screenspace with DON, as the character of Boman has to be sufficiently utilized. Priyanka has some fighting sequence to impress viewers. She was not required to do any item number as it eroded her character in mindspace. Lara as Ayesha could have been replaced by any young female actor. Kunal looked like he was short of offers and took DON to register in our memories. And yes, as Shahrukh gets older..Hrithik looks fitting into DON’s shoes.
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Right time to invest in BANKS!!
With Moody degrading Indian banks and S & P upgrading credit risk portfolio of Indian banks by one notch, lot of investors do suspect what is COOKING! Ofcourse Sept qtr FY12 results of banking behemoth SBI were extraordinary both in terms of profitability and higher provisions for Non Performing Assets. But if you check out, YES BANK had Net NPAs around 0.25% of its assets. Around 30% of it's income was fixed - fee basis , so that rules out the possibility of interest rate exposure. With 22% ROE and >20% growth rate over successive years, Yes Bank surely demands higher valuation than the present P/E of 10. Normally, P/B is the parameter to judge valuation of banks. It's book value has consistently increased by over 20% YoY, so that indicates where the price should go. Latest move of offering 7% interest to CASA account holders will only strengthen the roots to take advantage of high interest rate lending scenario. Net Interest margin is close to 2.8% which may increase following halt by RBI in increasing repo rates.
In the present scenario; capital goods, metals and realty sector really doesn't look like worth investing. But given the shallow valuations and decrease in EPS already factored in the current prices, not much downfall is expected. Over the next quarter, rate sensitivity will maximise its effect and then begin to subside. RBI's sole purpose to control inflation was to not compromise with India's GDP growth. Given the sorry state midcap and even some large caps find themselves in, interest expenses must decline.
In the Indian equity market, defensive sector like FMCG can't hold on for too long. It's already trading at a P/E multiple of more than 30, which defies logic. I don't see even big FMCG companies increasing EPS by more than 20% in a year timeframe. Increasing competition in the industry may just as well lead to some consolidation moves. White label consumer goods and private behemoths are readying up to take on the likes of HUL, ITC. Decreasing food inflation may just force them to increase the quantity in their packaged eatables.
Lots of brouhaha over rising NPAs have seen PSU banks going down like a knife! But the worst is over as claimed by SBI (3.5% Net NPA) and seems similar for UCO Bank (~3% NPA). UCO has plans for increasing it's CASA ratio to 35% from present 23%. That will help in increasing NIMs. Allahabad Bank has been consistent in it's growth over the past quarters with comparatively lesser NPAs(~0.7% of Net Advances). Speculations are rife on sectors to which banks are lending major chunk of funds. Power sector - which is unable to recover the costs is the main culprit followed by Capital Goods - battling decreasing growth in order books due to recessionary feeling.
All this is bound to change once Inflation subsides. Compared to 2011, this year's demand is on the lower side. See it by jobs at MBA colleges, results expectations of evergreen sector like IT or expansion plans of biggies like Reliance, L & T - you will realize the mood quite well. So see lesser hikes this year, lower spending and yes inflation at 5-6%. Then watch banks reach the pinnacle.
In the present scenario; capital goods, metals and realty sector really doesn't look like worth investing. But given the shallow valuations and decrease in EPS already factored in the current prices, not much downfall is expected. Over the next quarter, rate sensitivity will maximise its effect and then begin to subside. RBI's sole purpose to control inflation was to not compromise with India's GDP growth. Given the sorry state midcap and even some large caps find themselves in, interest expenses must decline.
In the Indian equity market, defensive sector like FMCG can't hold on for too long. It's already trading at a P/E multiple of more than 30, which defies logic. I don't see even big FMCG companies increasing EPS by more than 20% in a year timeframe. Increasing competition in the industry may just as well lead to some consolidation moves. White label consumer goods and private behemoths are readying up to take on the likes of HUL, ITC. Decreasing food inflation may just force them to increase the quantity in their packaged eatables.
Lots of brouhaha over rising NPAs have seen PSU banks going down like a knife! But the worst is over as claimed by SBI (3.5% Net NPA) and seems similar for UCO Bank (~3% NPA). UCO has plans for increasing it's CASA ratio to 35% from present 23%. That will help in increasing NIMs. Allahabad Bank has been consistent in it's growth over the past quarters with comparatively lesser NPAs(~0.7% of Net Advances). Speculations are rife on sectors to which banks are lending major chunk of funds. Power sector - which is unable to recover the costs is the main culprit followed by Capital Goods - battling decreasing growth in order books due to recessionary feeling.
All this is bound to change once Inflation subsides. Compared to 2011, this year's demand is on the lower side. See it by jobs at MBA colleges, results expectations of evergreen sector like IT or expansion plans of biggies like Reliance, L & T - you will realize the mood quite well. So see lesser hikes this year, lower spending and yes inflation at 5-6%. Then watch banks reach the pinnacle.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Aaj...Yun hi
Aaj yun hi...is zehen me uthi ek baat..
ek chanchal sa ehsaas..kuch gehre, bhule bisre alfaaz..
kya zindagi se yahi chaha tha maine..kya khud se yahi manga tha maine??
in sawalon me jujhna nahi chahta main...in dayron me simatna nahi chahta main...
par inke saath chali aati hui un yaadon ka bhanwar...kuch thode se nam, thode manoram..
un kaagazon ke purzon me na jane kitne sapne range the meri syaahi ne...waqt ne jaise unhe mitaane ki saazish si chali ho...
sangeet ke un chhe chhandon ko apni dhuno se sawaanra tha maine..mere nishan abhi bhi hain unme...meri goonjen abhi bhi samayi hai unme..
kya maine khud ke iraadon se kiya hai chhal...kya maine khud ki koshishon ka kiya hai aatmghat..
na chahte hue bhi fansta sa chala raha hun in sawaalon me...jinke jawabon se bachata aa rha tha khud ko..
sach se ru ba ru hone hi ghadi phir chal padi hai..phir ghanseet rahi hai mujhe in sawaalon se duur..
phir kuch der ke liye ye dhundle saayon ki tarah kho jayenge kahin...kabhi aur aisi tanhaaiyon me meri ruuh to sateyenge..
Saturday, August 27, 2011
The DRAMA of CRISIS!!
If the first crisis was not enough, in came the second one. But this was not a fresh one, in fact the ‘beginning of the end’ courtesy Mr. Jhunjhunwala of first crisis. The bailouts, the easings are showing their side effects. It looked similar to a disease which was not strived to be cured, in fact it looked like the doctor kept the patient comfortably on respirator till his condition worsened.
Quantitative Easing – the word draws attention but it’s simply fusion of fresh money into the US market by selling government bonds. QE1 and QE2 tried to elongate the sluggish economy on respirator. Heart rate showed improvement for a while and people rejoiced that the disease is over. As long as the patient’s treatment(US economy) was funded by the wily zamindar(China), patient hoped for a recovery.
But the deteriorating mechanism was not helped by the employed population. The very factor that make US happening – extraordinary care of it’s citizens has instilled an idea into it’s working class. An idea that we are privileged to be here, we are not going to compete with people from emerging economies. We do best whatever we do. This attitude justifies the numero uno position US has been precariously holding onto somehow. But the writing is clear on the wall. They may not be able to sustain it. They should not for the benefit of THE WORLD. Whenever US is in trouble, it seems the world is about to end. Such centralization points to the feeling that we all are subjects of a single patriarch.
Going back to the patient analogy, he is showing no urgency in exercising his moving parts. High unemployment rate suggest that US has hardly been vigilant about it’s own intra-structure. Why US citizens are not preferred for jobs ? What extra they demand as compared to their peers? Why Indians and Chinese are hired by US companies ? If the patient is happy by borrowing help from more active patients then God knows how long he’ll live. Interestingly, this situation arises when people are staring down at the end of their life.
As I write this, QE3 will be ready for launch. It will be interesting to see how long this will go on. For sure, US government debt will increase beyond limitations. Credit rating may come down to A+. More mayhem is possible at the Wall Street and emerging markets. FIIs, the overseas investors are credited with driving the Indian Stock exchange. Its during these crisis, they ‘astoundingly’ decide to withdraw funds from India to save their face in their origins. We all agree that there is a lot of cushion for growth in India. Had Indian investors been intelligent enough to park their funds in equity, these situations would have been avoided to some extent. But the saving habits have denied that decoupling. Saving is understood by many as the money lying idle in CASA bank accounts. Of course, that’s true. Then you ask yourself if you need that fund in near future. The answer is – NO, I don’t think so. So what am I getting with this money ? A 4% annualized return!!! HAPPY ??? If you believe that you will earn more in future, then believe that the companies will do better. There is SCOPE in India for growth in MULTIPLES. Who will drive that ? COMPANIES…GOOD COMPANIES. How to identify them ? See past numbers…Profit Margin, Sales Growth, ROE. Should I become it’s shareholder ? Analyze the industry sector, EPS, see if it’s undervalued (P/E). Buy CHEAP, sell EXPENSIVE – a basic principle taught in NURSERY. Read management discussion in annual reports to get an idea about it’s future plans.
In fact, investment in equities (for sufficient time period, diversified portfolio) is saving in stricter sense which also gives higher average returns. But the drama of a collapse, the panic created especially to trigger downward run has prevented many to show the courage to invest when the bear is in motion. It’s only when the bear stops and FIIs come over again, the Indian investor feels comfortable to enter.
This attitude demands change, if we expect to be self-sufficient in any time horizon. These external forces can’t be dismissed, but their powers can be tamed if we understand the market. Speculation or intra day traders are also the culprit when it comes to misleading genuine investors. Relying purely on the technical analysis is not recommended for people who aim to ‘SAVE’ money through investment in equity.
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